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FRA1PR > SOLAR 26.02.13 17:49l 62 Lines 2735 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13781-FRA1PR
Read: GAST
Subj: Weekly Highlights and Forecas
Path: DBO595<DOK346<BBS645<DBX233<CB0ESN<FRA1PR
Sent: 130226/0816Z 13781@FRA1PR.FMPACA.FRA.EU.WW [13782] FBB7.01.35 alpha $:137
From: FRA1PR@FRA1PR.FMPACA.FRA.EU.WW
To : SOLAR@WW
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Feb 25 0208 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 - 24 February 2013
Solar activity was low. 15 C-class flares were observed throughout
the week, 13 of which originated from Region 1678 (N11, L=069,
class/area=Dkc/470 on 21 Feb). This region was numbered on 18 Feb
and quickly evolved from a beta to a complex beta-gamma-delta type
magnetic configuration. By 20 Feb, it had grown to 12 times its
original size and produced the largest flare of the week, a C8/Sf at
24/1111 UTC. Region 1678 rotated off the visible disk on 23 February
as a Dko type region with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Over
a dozen coronal mass ejections were observed during the week. Many
of the CMEs were associated with disappearing solar filaments. An
8-degree filament erupted near N25W18 between 0147 and 0548 UTC on
the 19th. Analysis of the associated CME suggested it had an
Earth-directed component. The largest filament eruption of the week
occurred later that day when a 41 degree long filament centered near
S22W10 left the disk between 1006 and 2310 UTC. Analysis suggested
there was no earth-directed component with that CME.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at normal levels throughout the week.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels until mid-day on 22
Feb when major storm levels were observed at high latitudes and the
planetary K-index reached unsettled levels. The increased activity
was tied to the arrival of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed
stream, possibly coupled with a transient solar wind feature. The
unsettled conditions lasted through the first period of 23 February
after which quiet activity levels prevailed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 February - 23 March 2013
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the forecast period with a slight chance for an M-class
event after 10 March when Region 1675 returns.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels through
the majority of the forecast period. Unsettled levels are predicted
for 01 and 21 March when recurrent coronal hole high speed streams
are forecast to be geoeffective.
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