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FR1SUD > SOLAR 15.03.13 00:06l 72 Lines 2580 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 154-FRA1PR
Read: GAST
Subj: Solar activity 13 - 16 mar 13
Path: DBO595<DBO763<DBX214<CB0ESN<FRA1PR
Sent: 130314/0817Z 154@FRA1PR.#13.FMPACA.FRA.EU.WW [155] FBB7.01.35 alpha $:154
From: FR1SUD@FRA1PR.#13.FMPACA.FRA.EU.WW
To : SOLAR@WW
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2013 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/2246Z from Region 1692 (N09E35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Mar,
15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 348 km/s at
13/0120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2107Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three
(16 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 123
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 007/008-016/020-013/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/45/30
Minor Storm 05/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/65/40
73 De Gerard
FR1SUD
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Message Written At 09:17 Local Time.
14 Mar 13
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